How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (2024)

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  • Kevin Pelton

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    How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (1)

    Kevin Pelton

    ESPN Senior Writer

    • Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
    • Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
    • Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system

Jun 20, 2024, 10:00 AM ET

With the NBA Finals officially in the books after the Boston Celtics vanquished Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, the NBA offseason has arrived for all 30 teams.

The Atlanta Hawks landed the No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft (Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN; Thursday's second round begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN), with the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers each holding two picks in this year's lottery. Three days later, at 6 p.m. ET, free agency officially begins, with superstars Paul George, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, James Harden, OG Anunoby and others set to test the market.

Massive decisions await, and billions of dollars are on the line. Should the Lakers try to land one of the Hawks' guards? Where should PG go? Which teams should run it back? Here are the optimal offseasons for all 30 NBA teams.

Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (2)

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (3)Atlanta Hawks

The middling Hawks need to meaningfully commit to a direction. The one they should take: Embrace a youth movement and build around whomever they take with the draft's No. 1 pick, while moving off of 25-year-old Trae Young, who has served as the face of the franchise since 2018. Atlanta could once again seek to engage the Lakers, who would have to part ways with picks, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and one of Gabe Vincent or Jarred Vanderbilt to make the deal work.

The No. 1 pick in this draft is nothing like Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in last year's class. But dealing away Young and handing the reins to Dejounte Murray and the player the Hawks take with the top pick would allow them to take on more of a defensive identity and avoid the challenges that come with building a defense around Young's shortcomings on that end. -- Chris Herring

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (4)Boston Celtics

After Boston breezed through the postseason to win the NBA title, it shouldn't be controversial to suggest that the team run it back. But doing so will cost the Celtics' front office a ton of money, given that the team has already exceeded the second apron. Jayson Tatum is eligible to sign the most lucrative contract in NBA history, for five years and $315 million. (Jaylen Brown's supermax deal from last summer, for five years and $304 million, is the current record.)

Team president Brad Stevens also needs to figure out how to extend Derrick White, who is eligible to sign for four years and $126 million, and sharpshooter Sam Hauser. Locking in the franchise's key players would be a win, though, even if it comes at a heavy financial cost. -- Chris Herring

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How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (6)

Brooklyn Nets

Above all else, Brooklyn needs to figure out what it takes and then pay it to retain unrestricted free agent Nic Claxton, who, at 25, is one of the league's best rim-protecting bigs.

Beyond that, the team needs to be on the lookout for embattled stars throughout the league who might be looking for a way out of their current situations via trade. (The club has seven future first-round picks.)

Mikal Bridges is fantastic -- someone any team would want -- but this season suggested he isn't a dominant enough playmaker to be the No. 1 option. Because of that, Brooklyn should seek to extend Bridges at a reasonable, but not max, number. And finding a reasonable extension number for 22-year-old Cam Thomas, who averaged 22.5 points in just his third season, would be a wise step, too, as he grows his all-around game. -- Chris Herring

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Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte has to decide how it wants to handle free agent Miles Bridges, who will be one of the better forwards on the market this summer. The 26-year-old, who missed the entire 2022-23 season after pleading no contest to a felony domestic violence charge, returned this past season and averaged 21.0 points and 7.3 rebounds for the Hornets. Signing and trading him to another team, though, would be the best move.

The Hornets -- third worst in the league on offense, second worst in defense, and starting over with a new coach and front office -- need help everywhere. They'd be smart to avoid sinking too many resources into Bridges and LaMelo Ball, who has missed 134 games over the past four seasons, and instead build around 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller, while focusing on the best player available at No. 6 this year to continue building toward the future. -- Chris Herring

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Chicago Bulls

Movement of some sort, any sort, would be great for the Bulls, the only NBA team that hasn't swung a deal at or around the trade deadline over the past three seasons.

Chicago needs to do something to shake itself from the perennial play-in team purgatory in which it finds itself. Finding a new home, and landing a decent asset or two, for swingman Zach LaVine would be the clearest way to do that.

And bringing back unrestricted free agent DeMar DeRozan might seem like a wrong step to some, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old is still highly productive and is a good enough playmaker to aid the offense. The Bulls should also reach a sensible deal with restricted free agent Patrick Williams, who at 22 has already shown to be a solid defender and good shooter from deep for his size.

Lastly, even if Lonzo Ball is able to return this season after missing 2½ years with his left knee injury, Chicago could still use a veteran point guard -- maybe someone such as Chris Paul, if he's waived by Golden State -- to organize the offense. -- Chris Herring

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Cleveland Cavaliers

The question that hangs over everything else for this franchise is simple: Will Donovan Mitchell sign a four-year, $208 million max extension to stay put for the long haul? If the answer is yes, the direction becomes clearer.

Still, the team has tough choices ahead. Suggestions to break up the talented backcourt, with Mitchell and Darius Garland, and/or the skilled frontcourt, with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, have only grown louder -- particularly after Cleveland went on a midseason hot streak, growing more willing and efficient from deep -- when Garland and Mobley were both out of the lineup with injuries.

Truth be told, the team should explore deals and potentially make them involving Garland and Allen in an effort to gain more depth and spacing. Once that's all resolved, an easier decision: The team should lock up 23-year-old Mobley to his max rookie extension. -- Chris Herring

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (10)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks already did the hard work, putting enough talent around Luka Doncic to get to the NBA Finals with Kyrie Irving as the only key contributor older than 27.

The task this offseason is to shed about $10 million in payroll, freeing Dallas to offer starter Derrick Jones Jr. a deal using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception after he emerged as an ace defender while playing for the veterans minimum. Ideally, the Mavericks will break Tim Hardaway Jr.'s $16.2 million expiring salary into smaller pieces that they can dump while using cash and a limited stock of second-round picks. -- Kevin Pelton

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (11)

Denver Nuggets

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's player option puts the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver is over the tax line without Caldwell-Pope's $15.4 million option, meaning the Nuggets would potentially have only the $5.2 million tax midlevel to replace him.

The best scenario for Denver would be to persuade Caldwell-Pope to opt in and extend his contract, pushing his higher salaries to future years when both the cap goes up and Caldwell-Pope gets the payday he desires. If Jamal Murray also signs an extension this summer rather than waiting on a possible All-NBA spot and supermax eligibility, the Nuggets could get their full starting five signed through 2025-26. -- Kevin Pelton

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Detroit Pistons

It goes without saying that there's plenty Detroit needs this offseason after a brutal 2023-24 campaign, one that ended with a 14-68 record and the team firing coach Monty Williams with $65M left on his contract.

The Pistons ranked among the league's bottom five in offense, defense, 3-point percentage, free throw rate allowed, turnover percentage committed and turnover percentage forced.

The first move should be to lock down floor general Cade Cunningham, the franchise's 2021 pick at No. 1 and centerpiece, with a five-year, $215 million extension. The Pistons should then decline Evan Fournier's $19 million team option so they can have upward of $60 million to spend in free agency -- an amount that should allow them to both meaningfully upgrade the roster's talent with more win-now veterans and address its numerous holes on either side of the floor. -- Chris Herring

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (13)

Golden State Warriors

After paying an exorbitant luxury tax bill only to miss the playoffs, the Warriors will want to stay out of the new second apron. That would give them a little more than $40 million in first-year salary between re-signing Klay Thompson and using the taxpayer midlevel exception to re-sign or replace Paul.

By bringing back much of last year's roster, Golden State would be betting on the development of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, as well as Draymond Green avoiding the suspensions that marred the 2023-24 season. -- Kevin Pelton

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How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (15)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets' big break came in the lottery, when they jumped up to No. 3 via Brooklyn. That puts Houston in perfect position to draft Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, a darling of stats-based projections (like mine) who's an ideal complement to the Rockets' budding talent as a lights-out shooter.

Houston fans might be dreaming of a big trade that gets the Rockets back to the playoffs, but for now the prudent move is to see how their March surge translates with the No. 3 pick and a healthy Steven Adams and Tari Eason in the mix. -- Kevin Pelton

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Indiana Pacers

Indiana took an impressive step forward this season by logging the NBA's second most efficient offense and making an unexpected run to the Eastern Conference finals.

The team looks to have already accomplished its top priority: signing forward Pascal Siakam to a four-year, $189.5M max contract. The Pacers should also bring back restricted free agent Obi Toppin, who averaged 10 points and nearly four boards on 70% shooting from 2 and 40% from 3. -- Chris Herring

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LA Clippers

The Clippers are hoping the lure of staying in L.A. is enough to persuade Paul George to sign the kind of below-max extension teammate Kawhi Leonard took midseason rather than look elsewhere for a max offer after he declined his player option. Then they want James Harden to re-sign for a deal like the three-year, $90 million offer proposed by ESPN's Bobby Marks.

That wouldn't prevent the Clippers from going into the second apron next season. But it would help them move out of it by 2026-27, when their 2032 first-round pick would potentially move to the end of the round. -- Kevin Pelton

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Los Angeles Lakers

D'Angelo Russell exercising an $18.7 million player option rather than testing free agency would give the Lakers far more options in the trade market this summer.

As soon as they make the No. 17 pick in this month's draft, the Lakers can trade that pick along with first-round picks in 2029 and 2031, which should be plenty to land Murray from the Hawks. If Los Angeles can use the 55th pick to draft Bronny James, helping persuade LeBron James to re-sign long term this summer or extend after exercising his player option, all the better. -- Kevin Pelton

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Memphis Grizzlies

Nothing is more important for the Grizzlies than a return to health after their players missed a league-high 561 games to injury or illness last season -- 185 more than the next-highest team.

Memphis must next find help at center after dealing the injured Adams to Houston last season, using either the No. 9 pick or a portion of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. If UConn's Donovan Clingan drops on draft night, the Grizzlies should be prepared to move up to add him. -- Kevin Pelton

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Miami Heat

Fewer teams are in a tougher position than Miami, which faces significant cap challenges and hard questions to answer this offseason.

One summer after losing key rotation players in Max Strus and Vincent, the Heat could lose wings Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith as free agents. (ESPN's Marks projects Miami as a second-apron tax club, which would further restrict the team's spending options, if Martin opts into the final year of his contract or re-signs with the team.)

Striking a long-term extension with Bam Adebayo, the 26-year-old who's entering his prime as one of the league's best, most versatile defenders, is the only no-brainer here. Jimmy Butler is also eligible for an extension and is believed to want a max -- something team president Pat Riley said he's wrestling with. "That's a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources unless you're somebody who's going to be there, available, every single night," Riley said of Butler, who turns 35 this offseason and has missed an average of 20 regular-season games the past five seasons.

If Miami can get Butler to agree to less, it should. Either way, the club looks likely to land where it often does: largely reliant on internal development and improvement, due to its limited cap space. -- Chris Herring

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Milwaukee Bucks

It would be fair for Milwaukee, after a second straight year of Giannis Antetokounmpo missing playoff games, to think that it simply needs to be healthy to have a shot at winning another title. (The club has actually been shorthanded three postseasons in a row, dating back to the sprained MCL that held Khris Middleton out of the 2022 East semis, as the Bucks were trying to repeat as NBA champs.)

But in analyzing this past season and Milwaukee's integration of Damian Lillard, one thing was clear: The team's defense -- with Lillard, and without star defender Jrue Holiday -- simply wasn't that championship caliber it had been in years prior. By season's end, the Bucks ranked just 19th. (They were better, but still below average, at 17th, after the All-Star break under coach Doc Rivers and Pat Beverley on the roster.) Because of that, the team should seek a younger, versatile, point-of-attack defender to help ease the burden defensively for Lillard, whether it's through the draft or via trade. -- Chris Herring

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Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves first need to figure out who will own the team after prospective buyers Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez initiated mediation to resolve their dispute over assuming majority ownership from Glen Taylor, who announced in March they'd missed deadlines to do so.

Whoever owns the team must be prepared to foot a massive luxury tax bill with extensions for Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns kicking in. Although Minnesota should explore a Towns trade with an eye toward future payroll relief with reserves Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid a year away from unrestricted free agency, the right move is probably keeping the core together -- for now. -- Kevin Pelton

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New Orleans Pelicans

With All-Star forward Brandon Ingram entering the final season of his contract, the time is right for the Pelicans to deal him for a player who better fits alongside Zion Williamson and the rest of their young core.

Ideally, that player would be Cleveland's Garland, who would offer more long-range shooting and playmaking than Ingram and free a spot in the starting five for Trey Murphy III. New Orleans would be wise to extend Murphy, who otherwise will become a restricted free agent next summer. -- Kevin Pelton

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New York Knicks

Perhaps more than any other team aside from the NBA champion Celtics, the Knicks should feel good about largely maintaining the status quo. That task will come with a hefty bill, of course, as defensive stud OG Anunoby and center Isaiah Hartenstein, the latter of whom was enormously impressive upon joining the team's starting lineup, are both free agents who can command top dollar in the marketplace. (Other things that could impact owner Jim Dolan's wallet in the near future: possible extensions for coach Tom Thibodeau and Jalen Brunson.)

The Knicks can and should deal backup center Mitchell Robinson to free up money to throw Hartenstein's way, and should cut bait with backup Bojan Bogdanovic, whose $19 million contract is only partially guaranteed this coming season. New York can potentially find a better-fitting reserve for his spot.

The team has picks it can deal for a bonafide star to play alongside Brunson, but this group deserves an opportunity to play at full strength first before pulling that lever. -- Chris Herring

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Oklahoma City Thunder

The bold move is the Thunder making a run to bring George back to Oklahoma City in free agency. This would likely require trading Ousmane Dieng, Kenrich Williams. this year's No. 12 pick and additional salary to create the necessary cap space.

The Thunder have enough depth on the roster to make it work, and signing George would surely make them the favorites to win the West. More realistically, Oklahoma City's goal this offseason should be to find a player like Dallas' P.J. Washington, who can offer positional size and adequate shooting. -- Kevin Pelton

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Orlando Magic

Paolo Banchero, the team's franchise player, spelled out what Orlando figures to address shortly after the team got knocked out of the playoffs.

"I would rather be more of an offensive hub than the point guard," he told reporters. That comment, coupled with the Magic finishing 24th in three-point percentage and 30th -- or dead last -- in 3-point makes suggests that a new ball handler with range will be on the team's wishlist.

D'Angelo Russell, who can opt out of his deal with the Lakers this summer, would make a lot of sense for an elite defensive team like the Magic, who could cover for Russell's shortcomings on that end. -- Chris Herring

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Philadelphia 76ers

With max cap space and yet another early elimination, expect Philadelphia to go big-game hunting now that Tobias Harris' five-year, $180 million contract has expired.

The dream scenario -- and the first thing the Sixers should be trying to do -- is to land someone like LeBron James or Paul George, both of whom can opt out of their deals to become free agents. If they fail on those fronts, a valuable two-way wing like Denver's Caldwell-Pope would make a lot of sense. Regardless of what happens with external free agents, Philly obviously has to bring back restricted free agent Tyrese Maxey, who made his first All-Star team this season and figures to be partnered with 2023 MVP Joel Embiid for years to come. -- Chris Herring

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Phoenix Suns

Given 26 of the other 29 GMs would trade their situation with the Suns, clearly Phoenix should stay the course.

In all seriousness, though, the Suns are so all-in already that they should consider dealing this year's No. 22 pick and their 2031 first-rounder for an upgrade. But Phoenix would also benefit from adding a rookie capable of injecting youth and athleticism, like centers Yves Missi or Kel'el Ware in a role similar to Dereck Lively II's with the Mavericks. Ideally, they'd look to address a point guard via free agency, hoping to land Kyle Lowry or Delon Wright for the minimum.

Either way, the Suns' biggest offseason addition will surely be new head coach Mike Budenholzer. -- Kevin Pelton

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Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are still early enough in their rebuilding process that their pair of lottery picks (Nos. 7 and 14) should be used more with an eye toward the best possible talent than fitting alongside a group of young prospects that has yet to establish itself as cornerstones.

Portland will ideally take advantage of a team desperate for an immediate upgrade to command a massive return for forward Jerami Grant, whose contract looks far more palatable with the salary cap set to jump 10% annually going forward. -- Kevin Pelton

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Sacramento Kings

The Kings would be a possible landing spot for Grant, though in their ideal offseason they'd give up limited pick value -- perhaps a protected first-rounder -- along with Kevin Huerter to upgrade from Harrison Barnes to the younger Grant.

Sacramento would want to rope in a third team to shed some additional salary, giving the Kings the ability to re-sign Sixth Man of the Year Award runner-up Malik Monk as an unrestricted free agent without pushing into the luxury tax. -- Kevin Pelton

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San Antonio Spurs

Getting a prospect as talented as Victor Wembanyama is the hardest part, but building around him is a challenge too. The Spurs don't want to burn through assets before Wembanyama is ready to win at the highest level, but building too slowly might frustrate him.

Ideally, San Antonio adds veterans on two-year contracts, giving more structure to develop their young players (including this year's Nos. 4 and 8 picks) while maintaining cap space for a run at a star player in 2026 ahead of the last year of Wembanyama's rookie contract. -- Kevin Pelton

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Toronto Raptors

Even after making a flurry of deals during the season -- dealing away Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Dennis Schroder, among others, for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji -- it still figures to be a busy summer for Toronto.

Scottie Barnes, the former Rookie of the Year, is eligible for a rookie max extension, which -- at five years for $215 million -- would go down as the biggest contract in franchise history. That's a no-brainer. The team should also prioritize Quickley, its starting point guard who is a restricted free agent, and pick up wing Bruce Brown's team option for $23 million, which would give Toronto the ability to deal him elsewhere later on.

If the Raptors do that, whoever else they acquire -- either in free agency or with one of their two first-round picks next week -- should have the ability to hit the defensive glass. The Raptors finished second worst in the league in defensive-rebound percentage. -- Chris Herring

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Utah Jazz

Much of the Jazz's approximately $30 million in cap space will be earmarked for renegotiating Lauri Markkanen's contract in conjunction with a long-term extension entering its final season.

Utah has more than enough incoming draft picks to also be active in the trade market, ideally targeting a player young enough to grow with four first-round picks from the past two drafts, plus two more this June. If San Antonio ends up dealing Keldon Johnson in a win-now move, he'd be a strong buy-low candidate as part of a multiteam deal. -- Kevin Pelton

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Washington Wizards

When you're coming off a season like the one Washington is, there are, obviously, a lot of needs. But there are two that are more glaring than the others: a starting-caliber point guard -- current starter Tyus Jones is an unrestricted free agent -- and a starting-caliber center. (After dealing away Kristaps Porzingis in the offseason, and then Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline, the Wizards ranked last in the NBA in defensive-rebound percentage and tied for last with the lowly Pistons in paint points allowed.)

Someone like Precious Achiuwa, who filled in admirably in New York, would make a lot of sense. Washington has the $12.9 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception available to address its shortcomings. But above all else, the organization should seek to score big with its No. 2 (and No. 26) overall pick, in hopes of turning their fortunes around long term, as the team is still a ways off from contention. -- Chris Herring

How all 30 NBA teams can nail their 2024 offseasons (2024)
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